Statistical analysis to calculate the probability of getting PR for Indian passport holders
Posted: Sun, 23 Feb 2025 1:41 am
Hello Indian PR seekers,
Many Indian nationals are inquiring about their chances of obtaining PR in Singapore. Here’s a step-by-step analysis of your chances to get Singapore PR as an Indian origin.
Average number of PRs given in the last 10 years.
Year| PRs Granted (Approx.) |[Source : https://tablebuilder.singstat.gov.sg/table/TS/M810781]
2014 ~29,000
2015 ~29,800
2016 ~31,000
2017 ~31,800
2018 ~32,700
2019 ~32,900
2020 ~27,500
2021 ~33,400
2022 ~34,500
2023 ~32,800
On average, about 30,000 people are granted PR status each year. Roughly 20,000 PRs transition to Singapore citizenship annually, meaning that two-thirds of new PRs replace those who have become citizens.
This means that ICA effectively creates only 10,000 new PR slots each year, while the remaining 20,000 depend entirely on the number of PRs who transition to citizenship.
The CMIO ethnic demography ratio.
CMIO stands for Chinese, Malay, Indian, and Others. Looking at Singapore's ethnic demographics over the past decade, the proportions have remained largely stable across these groups.
Year| Chinese (%)| Malay (%)| Indian (%)| Others (%)| [Source: https://www.singstat.gov.sg/find-data/s ... -dashboard]
2014 74.3 13.3 9.1 3.3
2015 74.3 13.3 9.1 3.3
2016 74.3 13.3 9.1 3.3
2017 74.2 13.4 9.1 3.3
2018 74.2 13.4 9.1 3.3
2019 74.2 13.4 9.1 3.3
2020 74.1 13.5 9.1 3.3
2021 74.1 13.5 9.1 3.3
2022 74.0 13.6 9.0 3.4
2023 73.9 13.6 9.0 3.5
We can reasonably expect the CMIO ratio for PRs to be largely similar to that of citizens.
How many slots are reserved for Indian origins?
Now, let's dive into the interesting part. Out of the 30,000 PR slots, how many are allocated to Indians, regardless of the number of Indian applicants? Based on the demographic ratio, approximately 9% of 30,000, which equals 2,700, would be granted to Indians.
How many Indian passport holders are applying for Singapore PR?
I couldn't find any publicly available data on the number of PR applications each year. However, we can make some assumptions to estimate a rough figure.
There are mainly 4 kind of applicants.
1. Global Investor Programme (GIP) (Need minimum 10 million SGD)
2. Family of SG citizen (Family Ties Scheme )
3. Family of an existing PR (Family Ties Scheme )
4. Employment Pass holders and their family ( Professionals/Technical Personnel & Skilled Workers (PTS) scheme)
The majority of PR applications come from Employment Pass holders and their families. However, priority is likely given first to the families of citizens, followed by those of PRs.
Let's say 700 slots are reserved for the first 3 and 2000 slots are for PTS scheme.
Now, let's examine the number of Employment Pass holders in Singapore who are Indian passport holders. Singapore has over 200,000 EP holders in total ([source](https://www.mom.gov.sg/foreign-workforce-numbers)), with approximately 26% of them being from India.
This implies that each year, approximately 50,000 Indian nationals become eligible to apply for Singapore PR. Assuming half of them apply with their families (including a spouse and a child), the total number of applicants would reach at least 75,000 annually. All of them are competing for just 2,000 available PR spots.
Probability to get PR
This means that the probability of an Indian national obtaining Singapore PR is only **2.67%** (2,000 out of 75,000 applicants).
Obtaining Singapore PR is more of a rejection process by ICA rather than a selection process. Since the exact criteria are unknown, applicants can only enhance their profiles based on assumptions—strategies that may or may not be effective.
All the best!
Many Indian nationals are inquiring about their chances of obtaining PR in Singapore. Here’s a step-by-step analysis of your chances to get Singapore PR as an Indian origin.
Average number of PRs given in the last 10 years.
Year| PRs Granted (Approx.) |[Source : https://tablebuilder.singstat.gov.sg/table/TS/M810781]
2014 ~29,000
2015 ~29,800
2016 ~31,000
2017 ~31,800
2018 ~32,700
2019 ~32,900
2020 ~27,500
2021 ~33,400
2022 ~34,500
2023 ~32,800
On average, about 30,000 people are granted PR status each year. Roughly 20,000 PRs transition to Singapore citizenship annually, meaning that two-thirds of new PRs replace those who have become citizens.
This means that ICA effectively creates only 10,000 new PR slots each year, while the remaining 20,000 depend entirely on the number of PRs who transition to citizenship.
The CMIO ethnic demography ratio.
CMIO stands for Chinese, Malay, Indian, and Others. Looking at Singapore's ethnic demographics over the past decade, the proportions have remained largely stable across these groups.
Year| Chinese (%)| Malay (%)| Indian (%)| Others (%)| [Source: https://www.singstat.gov.sg/find-data/s ... -dashboard]
2014 74.3 13.3 9.1 3.3
2015 74.3 13.3 9.1 3.3
2016 74.3 13.3 9.1 3.3
2017 74.2 13.4 9.1 3.3
2018 74.2 13.4 9.1 3.3
2019 74.2 13.4 9.1 3.3
2020 74.1 13.5 9.1 3.3
2021 74.1 13.5 9.1 3.3
2022 74.0 13.6 9.0 3.4
2023 73.9 13.6 9.0 3.5
We can reasonably expect the CMIO ratio for PRs to be largely similar to that of citizens.
How many slots are reserved for Indian origins?
Now, let's dive into the interesting part. Out of the 30,000 PR slots, how many are allocated to Indians, regardless of the number of Indian applicants? Based on the demographic ratio, approximately 9% of 30,000, which equals 2,700, would be granted to Indians.
How many Indian passport holders are applying for Singapore PR?
I couldn't find any publicly available data on the number of PR applications each year. However, we can make some assumptions to estimate a rough figure.
There are mainly 4 kind of applicants.
1. Global Investor Programme (GIP) (Need minimum 10 million SGD)
2. Family of SG citizen (Family Ties Scheme )
3. Family of an existing PR (Family Ties Scheme )
4. Employment Pass holders and their family ( Professionals/Technical Personnel & Skilled Workers (PTS) scheme)
The majority of PR applications come from Employment Pass holders and their families. However, priority is likely given first to the families of citizens, followed by those of PRs.
Let's say 700 slots are reserved for the first 3 and 2000 slots are for PTS scheme.
Now, let's examine the number of Employment Pass holders in Singapore who are Indian passport holders. Singapore has over 200,000 EP holders in total ([source](https://www.mom.gov.sg/foreign-workforce-numbers)), with approximately 26% of them being from India.
This implies that each year, approximately 50,000 Indian nationals become eligible to apply for Singapore PR. Assuming half of them apply with their families (including a spouse and a child), the total number of applicants would reach at least 75,000 annually. All of them are competing for just 2,000 available PR spots.
Probability to get PR
This means that the probability of an Indian national obtaining Singapore PR is only **2.67%** (2,000 out of 75,000 applicants).
Obtaining Singapore PR is more of a rejection process by ICA rather than a selection process. Since the exact criteria are unknown, applicants can only enhance their profiles based on assumptions—strategies that may or may not be effective.
All the best!