Sgd Vs Aus dollar Vs US dollar! let's share your forecast!

[dejavulupa]

Hi..today my personal banker said" SGD will tend to be weaker compared to Aus and US in the future" at least that's the trend so far.

So any comment?

Is that true the fact that australian dollar will rise cos' the country natural resources in a great demand to China? as China govt is strengthening its infrastructure?

I tried to find this info in bloomberg,but fail to find. Any idea where i should browse for good financial/economic/currency forum?

[ksl]

Hi..today my personal banker said" SGD will tend to be weaker compared to Aus and US in the future" at least that's the trend so far.

So any comment?

Is that true the fact that australian dollar will rise cos' the country natural resources in a great demand to China? as China govt is strengthening its infrastructure?

I tried to find this info in bloomberg,but fail to find. Any idea where i should browse for good financial/economic/currency forum?

Is that true the fact that australian dollar will rise cos' the country natural resources in a great demand to China? as China govt is strengthening its infrastructure

That is not the reason!

If you notice the UK pound is also getting stronger than Singapore$.. But I will turn the question a round and ask you, do you think the rest of the world should invest in the singapore $? Of course not Singapore is nothing more than a hub, that others trade through so my 5 cents is to tell everyone to make the most of it, while it lasts. I predict something much worse for the Singapore $ in the long run...

The government owned companies have taken quite a beating in this economic crash, unfortunately and it's just my prediction that the enjoyment they have had, will be paid back, so I am looking at above 3$ to a pound, for the export market to turn around so the Sing $ will eventually be a great deal more attractive to to the outside world.

But who am i, No expert that's for sure. I'm just looking at it form a logical point of view. It doesn't make sense at all, for Singapore to move into the service industry and Tourism, with a crappy exchange rate! No incentive at all to visit the place.

Even at 3 bucks to a pound, is not attractive to most Countries, when there is very little to offer in the line of tourism, that's why they are counting on the casino's but lets face it, it's a bit tame in Singapore since it left the title of Sin City.

When i think back to those days, it was one of entertainment and a really good night out, not what you think. Bugis st was the place, and that's what it will always be remembered for, it's history!

It was a good place for fun and socialising. So any currency but the Sing$, Singapore only lives off trading and financial exchange. capitalise before the turn around.

You can also look at it from another point of view, there will be no turn around at all, when exports are too expensive to import....the industries where moved to Asia for a reason. Think about it!

[sundaymorningstaple]

ksl, looks like you are slowly coming around to my way of think and what I was saying a year or so ago with regard to the future of this little red dot.

[jpatokal]

Hi..today my personal banker said" SGD will tend to be weaker compared to Aus and US in the future" at least that's the trend so far. So any comment?

If anybody knew the answer, they'd be a millionaire. But we don't, so all we can do is guess. And unlike stocks, bonds etc, which go up in the long term, currency speculation is a zero-sum game: gains always average out to 0% in the long term. So don't try to play the market unless you're sure you're smarter than the rest of the world...

All that said: the SGD is managed by MAS and they've publicly stated that it's not in Singapore's interest to let the currency strengthen at this point. Which is why, against both USD and euro, it's now more or less back now to where it was a year ago:

http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDSGD=X
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EURSGD=X

Of course, the pound's gone off a cliff, but it's done that against every currency, not just the Sing dollar...

http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GBPSGD=X

[PhantomX]

Yup agree with Jpatokal
Sgd is managed and the trend is downward weighting against the basket ie USD Yen Euro and Sterling.
Sgd Aud is a cross trade and has to be read in the light of USD AUD which on consensus view has AUD strengthening against the USD given the recent switch from extreme risk aversion ( read safety). But the strengthening has done its rounds just as the Oil rally has and recent highs will be the temporary ceiling from which trading will be range bound till mid year ie AUD USD 0.767 or round about there. So if Sgd is also on a slight rebound against the USD for the foreseeable then AUD Sgd is temporarily range bound on a ceiling to 1AUD= SGD 1.13
Because the bulk of the problems for Eurozone and UK are in the second half with money printing presses working 24X7 I would expect some continuation of the their weakening against the SGD.
But as Jpatokal says CAVEAT EMPTOR!!!

[dejavulupa]

WOW! Thanks for the response.

I am just a simply housewife-tryin to keep pace of myself in financial world by actively investing my bit of money in Dual currency balance. Or else i will go bored at home.

I am actually has very simple view. Spore needs export, and tourist. By strenghten their currency will get her nowhere for those businesses. Thus I agreed with phatom and jpatokal.

In the other hand, aussie dollar is a comodity currency, perhaps this currency will go up higher than US. Especially, they are supplying raw material to China.

Pls do mind with my ignorance and simply language. I really need to learn more. Pls feed me with more info. Thanks

[Strong Eagle]

My $0.02? Countries that are rich in minerals and energy... Australia, Canada, Russia, Brazil... will see their currencies appreciate significantly over the next few years as the recession retreats and demand for these commodities heat up. The US dollar (and the Euro) is destined to fall against these currencies because they will be a net importer of commodities and must buy the BRAC currencies.

As for the Sing dollar... who knows? It is a balancing act... keep the SGD h low enough to earn some decent export $$$... keep it high enough so that the costs of food and other essentials in Singapore don't go through the roof.

Rather than fooling around with currencies I'd look at metals and energy.

Cheers.

[sierra2469alpha]

Yup agree with Jpatokal
Sgd is managed and the trend is downward weighting against the basket ie USD Yen Euro and Sterling.
Sgd Aud is a cross trade and has to be read in the light of USD AUD which on consensus view has AUD strengthening against the USD given the recent switch from extreme risk aversion ( read safety). But the strengthening has done its rounds just as the Oil rally has and recent highs will be the temporary ceiling from which trading will be range bound till mid year ie AUD USD 0.767 or round about there. So if Sgd is also on a slight rebound against the USD for the foreseeable then AUD Sgd is temporarily range bound on a ceiling to 1AUD= SGD 1.13
Because the bulk of the problems for Eurozone and UK are in the second half with money printing presses working 24X7 I would expect some continuation of the their weakening against the SGD.
But as Jpatokal says CAVEAT EMPTOR!!!

Yeh, not to mention the USD printing presses also - agree - crosstrades are harsh. 1=1.13, nice call IMHO

[dejavulupa]

Correct me if I'm wrong!

By reading this:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... U&refer=us

It means "US Govt will print more US dollar, rite?" thus the supply of USD will be plenty..that's what they mean?

So might be the timing to buy USD?

[jpatokal]

Correct me if I'm wrong!

By reading this:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... U&refer=us

It means "US Govt will print more US dollar, rite?" thus the supply of USD will be plenty..that's what they mean?

So might be the timing to buy USD?

No, precisely the opposite. Print more US dollars --> supply of US dollars increases --> relative value of US dollars decreases.

[sierra2469alpha]

@PhantomX - you seem pretty knowledgeable on such matters - care to share your thoughts about 3-4 month where the AUD was over the SGD (about late OCT08-FEB09 approx)?

Cheers, Mr. P

[-jt-]

is there a bank in singapore that will let you save in yuan? renmimbi

[wcs]

I don't think you will have much luck with yuan/RMB accounts here. Bank of China only has credit cards, and HSBC does not have RMB accounts in their foreign currency accounts.

The RMB is not meant to be traded outside of China. It has only been very recently that I think HK banks were allowed to offer RMB accounts.

Maybe open an account in HK?

[shalamazoo]

my family will be visiting singapore in a few days, wondering can i bring rmb to singapore and exchange for singapore dollars???

[blue_thunder]

my family will be visiting singapore in a few days, wondering can i bring rmb to singapore and exchange for singapore dollars???

Yes you can. But you can get better exchange rates in your home country than the visiting one always...